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Citigroup predicts that copper prices will surpass the $10,000 per ton mark within the next three months. The global copper market is expected to remain tight until the U.S. import tariff policy becomes clearer. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs forecasts that by the end of the third quarter, rising copper prices will cause U.S. copper inventories to surge from the current 95,000 tons to at least 300,000 to 400,000 tons. This would account for 45-60% of global reported inventories, leaving other regions with very low copper stockpiles.
Copper Prices Approach $10,000 per Ton
Global copper prices have been steadily rising, with London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices nearing the $10,000 per ton threshold. Market concerns over potential tariffs on copper imports by the Trump administration have triggered a rush to buy copper in the U.S. This “copper rush” could lead to a severe imbalance in global copper inventory distribution, potentially causing new disruptions in the metal markets.
Currently, LME copper prices have reached their highest level since October, trading at $9,797 per ton, marking a nearly 12% increase this year. Citigroup
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maintains that copper prices will break the $10,000 per ton barrier in the next three months, with the global copper market remaining tense until the U.S. tariff policy is clarified.
U.S. Copper Inventories to Surge
Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of the third quarter, U.S. copper inventories will skyrocket to 300,000-400,000 tons, up from the current 95,000 tons. This would represent 45-60% of global reported inventories. The firm also maintains its forecast that the average LME three-month copper price will reach $10,200 per ton in the third quarter.
In late February, reports indicated that President Trump ordered a national security investigation into U.S. copper imports. This move is seen as the first step toward imposing potential tariffs on the metal. The policy has already led to a surge in U.S. copper imports, with traders stockpiling copper ahead of possible tariff announcements.
Potential for Increased U.S. Copper Imports
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Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that U.S. copper imports could increase by 50% to 100% in the coming months. By the end of the third quarter, rising copper prices will push U.S. inventories to 300,000-400,000 tons, accounting for 45-60% of global reported inventories. Meanwhile, copper stockpiles in other regions are expected to remain very low.
This large-scale stockpiling has created significant arbitrage opportunities. As of last week, the May copper futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was $800 per ton higher than the corresponding LME contract.
Tight Physical Markets Outside the U.S.
Citigroup analysts believe that tight physical markets outside the U.S. may persist until May or June, temporarily offsetting the price resistance caused by broader U.S. tariff announcements.
Despite concerns over the U.S. economic outlook, industrial metal prices have remained relatively stable. The rise in copper prices is not only driven by U.S. tariff policies but also supported by increasing raw material scarcity, as demand growth outpaces global mine expansion.
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Long-Term Supply Shortages Predicted
Goldman Sachs forecasts a global copper supply deficit of 180,000 tons by 2025, primarily due to strong electrification demand and slower growth in mining supply. Seasonal factors are expected to concentrate this supply gap in the second half of this year.
While Citigroup maintains its view that copper prices will rise in the short term, it also warns that prices could decline if U.S. copper import demand collapses as the Section 232 copper tariffs approach implementation.
Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, maintains its forecast that the average LME three-month copper price will reach 10,200 per ton in the third quarter. The firm also predicts that the LME September-December contract spread could reach a backwardation of up to 350 per ton, a level sufficient to close the U.S. import arbitrage window.
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