The clock has run out — and nothing has happened.

Today, November 2, marks the end of the 45-day review window for Coinbase Derivatives’ Single Stock Perpetual Futures Contract — the filing that would bring crypto-style perpetual futures to individual U.S. stocks. A check of the CFTC’s product register this morning shows it still listed as “Approval Pending (45),” dated September 18, 2026. No approval. No rejection. No extension announced.

That silence is the story. For 45 days, November 2 has been circled across the industry as the day the first regulated U.S. stock perpetuals might go live. Instead, the deadline arrived and the decision did not — and November 2 was never a hard deadline at all.

A 45-Day Timeline That Ran Out of Road

The countdown is complete; the decision never arrived. Every milestone comes from the CFTC register, SEC releases, or the filings themselves, checked this morning.

Expectations vs. Reality: The Scorecard

When the four exchanges filed in mid-September, the assumption was that at least one would be trading before year-end, and Kalshi’s own SEC filing named November 2 as its rule change’s effective date. Here is how those expectations have held up:

The scorecard is compiled from the CFTC product register as checked on November 2, 2026. The five index contracts — US500, Tech100, Defense10, China10 and AI10 — remain listed as “Certified” with their original dates, and no exchange has publicly announced cancelling an expiry date during the relief window. That is the public record — not a claim that nothing happened behind closed doors.

Four Exchanges, Zero Decisions

The first approval will set the template for the whole market — fees, margin, funding mechanics and clearing — and rivals will have to match it. The first approval effectively writes the rulebook for leveraged, never-expiring stock exposure in the United States.

Why the CFTC Hasn’t Decided

Two obstacles explain the delay, and both are matters of public record.

First, a classification fight. CME Group has sued the CFTC, arguing that perpetual contracts are swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act rather than futures, and therefore fall outside the approval path the exchanges are using. The CFTC has moved to dismiss the case for lack of standing. The suit remains unresolved, and a ruling that perps are swaps would upend the entire framework.

Second, open questions from the regulators themselves. Legal analysis published on October 20 noted that the CFTC and the SEC still have questions about how perpetual contracts should be classified — and about what leveraged, near-round-the-clock trading in single stocks would mean for liquidity and price discovery in the underlying equity markets. Those questions could affect both the substance and the timing of any decision.

Neither point is a verdict. But together they explain why the calendar, rather than the merits, has been doing the talking.

The Case For and Against

The bull case is straightforward. Perpetual futures are the most liquid derivatives in crypto. Bringing the same structure — no expiry, funding-rate-anchored pricing, near-round-the-clock trading — to U.S. equities would give traders leveraged exposure without the roll costs of quarterly futures, and let a regulated venue compete with offshore platforms.

The bear case is equally clear. Approval is uncertain and open-ended: the November 2 date was the end of a review window, not a deadline, and Kalshi’s own filing says its rule change would take effect on November 2 “or on a later date if CFTC approval takes longer.” Even after a CFTC approval, the SEC would have 60 days to summarily abrogate the listing standards after consulting the CFTC. The products themselves carry real risk — leveraged, never-expiring exposure to single stocks, with funding payments that can turn against holders, is a long way from a buy-and-hold position.

One plumbing detail: Coinbase Clearing’s September 28 registration covers fully collateralized contracts only. Margined products will clear through third-party partners, and the representative Apple contract is slated to clear through Nodal Clear rather than Coinbase’s own clearer. The infrastructure is being assembled in pieces.

What to Watch Next

Three things will tell the market where this goes from here.

First, the CFTC product register. The status line for Coinbase’s contract is the most authoritative source — it will change before any press release lands. The same applies to the other three filings.

Second, the SEC’s 60-day window. Once the CFTC approves and the listing standards take effect, the SEC has 60 days to step in — an approval would start a second clock rather than ending the story.

Third, the template effect. The first exchange to win approval sets the market’s terms — margin, funding, clearing — and the others must respond. Watch whether the winner is a crypto-native venue like Coinbase or Kalshi, or a traditional-market specialist like Bitnomial: that will say a lot about whose rulebook the new market follows.

We covered the closing of the CFTC’s no-action pilot for index perp-style contracts in October, when the relief window expired without any public conversions. Today’s non-decision is the sequel: the pilot is over, the review window is over, and the product itself is still waiting.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Status information is drawn from the CFTC product register as checked on November 2, 2026.